Customer acquisition costs climbed again this year. They’ll climb again next year. And the year after that.
This isn’t a temporary market condition. It’s the new reality. Meta and Google have built machines that extract maximum value from brands desperate to reach consumers. And every year, those machines get better at their job.
The brands that thrive in this environment won’t be the ones with the biggest ad budgets. They’ll be the ones who figured out how to stop renting customers and start owning them.
The Rent vs. Own Problem
Every BFCM, the same cycle plays out. Brands pour money into paid channels to acquire customers. The campaigns work. Revenue spikes. Dashboards look great.
Then the campaign ends. And that spend is gone. Completely gone.
You didn’t acquire those customers. You rented access to them for a moment. Meta let you reach them because you paid for the privilege. The moment you stop paying, that access disappears.
Here’s the question that should keep ecommerce leaders up at night: of all the customers you “acquired” during BFCM, how many did you actually convert to a channel you own before the transaction was complete?
If the only way to reach a customer again is to pay for another ad impression, you don’t have a customer. You have a transaction record. There’s a meaningful difference.
Paid Is a Lease. Owned Is Equity.
Think about it in real estate terms.
Paid acquisition is a lease. You’re paying month to month for access to space you’ll never own. The moment you stop paying, you’re out. And the landlord (Meta, Google, TikTok) can raise the rent whenever they want. Which they do. Relentlessly.
Email, SMS, and referral are equity. Every subscriber, every opt-in, every activated referrer is an asset you own outright. No one can take it away. No algorithm change can throttle your access. No CPM increase can price you out of reaching them.
BFCM was your down payment. You spent heavily to get thousands of customers through the door. The question now is whether you’re going to convert that down payment into equity or let it evaporate into another rent cycle.
The transfer from paid to owned needs to happen fast. Every day a customer sits in your database without engaging with an owned channel, the likelihood of ever transferring them decreases. They become a retargeting audience instead of an actual customer. And retargeting means paying rent all over again.
The Rising CAC Reality
Let’s be direct about where this is heading.
CAC has increased year over year for most of the past decade. iOS privacy changes accelerated it. AI-driven ad platforms optimized for platform revenue, not advertiser efficiency. Competition for attention intensified. None of these trends are reversing.
Brands that can’t activate organic acquisition channels will struggle to stay profitable. This isn’t pessimism. It’s math.
If your CAC is $50 and climbing, and your customer only makes one purchase at a $60 margin, you’re barely breaking even on first order. Your entire business model depends on that customer coming back. And if the only way to bring them back is more paid spend, you’re trapped in a cycle that gets more expensive every quarter.
The brands breaking out of this cycle are the ones treating paid as the entry point, not the strategy. Paid gets customers in the door. Owned channels keep them and multiply them.
Referral: The Transfer Mechanism
This is where referral fits into the picture, and it’s not where most brands think.
Referral isn’t just a program that sits in your footer and occasionally generates orders. It’s the mechanism that transfers customers from paid acquisition to owned acquisition.
When a customer you paid to acquire refers a friend, something important happens. That original customer has just become an acquisition channel. They’re no longer a cost center. They’re actively working to grow your business through a channel you own completely.
And the friend they referred? That’s a customer you acquired without paying platform rent. No Meta. No Google. Just one person telling another person about your brand.
The compounding math is powerful. Customer A came from paid. Customer A refers Customer B. Customer B refers Customer C. You paid once. You acquired three. Each subsequent customer in that chain cost you nothing in media spend.
This is what organic acquisition looks like. Not hoping your content goes viral. Not praying the algorithm favors you. Systematically converting paid customers into owned acquisition engines.
The Conversion Path Most Brands Miss
Here’s the referral insight that doesn’t get enough attention: your BFCM customers are at peak satisfaction right now. They just received something they wanted, probably at a great price. They’re happy.
But many of them aren’t ready to buy again. Maybe they stocked up. Maybe they’re tapped out from holiday spending. Maybe they just don’t need more of what you sell right now.
Traditional retention logic says keep emailing them until they buy again. Which leads to discount stacking and inbox fatigue and training customers to wait for the next sale.
Referral offers a different path. For the customer who loves you but isn’t ready to purchase, referral becomes an alternative conversion. They might not want to spend money, but they might be perfectly willing to share your brand with a friend.
“Not ready to buy? Your friends save 20% when you share.”
That customer just did something valuable for your business without making a purchase. They’ve engaged. They’ve taken an action. They’ve started to become an advocate. And you’ve potentially acquired a new customer through an owned channel.
Referral isn’t competing with your next sale. It’s an alternative action for the customers who aren’t ready to buy but are ready to engage.
Building the Owned Acquisition Engine
The tactical shift looks like this:
Every post-purchase flow should have an owned channel transfer goal. Order confirmation: referral link. Shipping notification: referral prompt. Delivery confirmation: “Share this with a friend.” You have 70%+ open rates on these emails. Use them to transfer customers to owned channels, not just confirm logistics.
Segment your BFCM customers by engagement potential. Some will buy again quickly. Great, optimize for second purchase. Others won’t buy soon but are highly satisfied. Those are your referral candidates. Don’t treat them as failed retention targets. Treat them as advocacy opportunities.
Make referral the alternative to discounting. When a customer isn’t converting on your re-engagement campaigns, the instinct is to offer a bigger discount. Instead, pivot to referral. “Not for you right now? Pass the savings to a friend.” You maintain margin while still getting value from that customer relationship.
Measure the transfer rate. What percentage of your paid-acquired BFCM customers have taken an owned channel action within 45 days? Opened an email? Clicked in SMS? Made a referral? This is your rent-to-own conversion rate. Track it as seriously as you track CAC.
The Profitability Equation
Here’s where this all comes together.
Brands with high owned channel engagement and active referral programs have structurally lower CAC. Not because paid got cheaper. Because a meaningful percentage of their new customers come through channels that don’t cost media dollars.
If 20% of your new customers come from referral, your blended CAC drops by 20%. That’s not a marketing win. That’s a finance win. That’s the kind of shift that changes unit economics and makes growth sustainable instead of a cash bonfire.
The brands that figure this out will outcompete the brands still addicted to paid acquisition. Not because they have better creative or smarter bidding strategies. Because they built an asset their competitors are still renting.
Stop Paying Rent
CAC will keep climbing. Platform algorithms will keep changing. Privacy regulations will keep tightening. The brands that survive and thrive will be the ones who used this moment to stop renting customers and start owning them.
BFCM gave you thousands of potential owned relationships. The clock is ticking on converting them from rented transactions to owned assets.
Every customer who engages with email, opts into SMS, or makes a referral is one less customer you have to pay to reach again. Every referral is a new customer acquired without platform rent.
The question isn’t whether you can afford to invest in owned channels. It’s whether you can afford not to.
About the Author:
Jeremy Foreshew is a full-stack marketer with deep expertise in customer-led growth. As Head of Marketing at Talkable, he helps DTC and eCommerce brands turn their customers into their most powerful acquisition channel. Jeremy writes about referral strategy, retention, and the future of word-of-mouth marketing. He has been featured in Forbes, TechCrunch, and HuffPost.
